{"id":600,"date":"2023-04-10T13:39:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T17:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/grieve-smith.com\/ftn\/?p=600"},"modified":"2023-12-17T13:58:57","modified_gmt":"2023-12-17T18:58:57","slug":"now-it-aint-so-neat-to-admit-defeat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/grieve-smith.com\/ftn\/2023\/04\/now-it-aint-so-neat-to-admit-defeat\/","title":{"rendered":"Now it ain\u2019t so neat to admit\u00a0defeat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There are three kinds of attitudes towards the spread of a disease like COVID-19. You can be indifferent to the suffering of others, you can be in favor of eradication, or you can give up. Recently I\u2019ve noticed that more and more of the people I know have given up. At first I was puzzled that so many people refused to talk about our failure to eradicate the disease, but over time I\u2019ve come to understand that this is just what most people do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, I want to talk about how we\u2019ve failed on COVID. And when I say \u201cwe\u201d I mean all of humanity, but specifically the United States, and more specifically New York State and New York City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before I get to our failures, I want to give a nod to our successes. Shutting down non-essential in-person businesses in the spring of 2020 allowed us to \u201cflatten the curve\u201d of hospitalizations. Our hospitals were under severe strain, but we did not get to the point where we needed to use the Javits Center or the Navy hospital ship. After that, the restrictions on indoor dining and avoidance of other indoor in-person activities helped us to keep hospitalizations and even deaths relatively low until the vaccine rollout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our record after that has been pretty dismal. Over 800,000 people have died of COVID in the United States since the first vaccine was administered on December 13, 2020, more than twice as many as had died before. Thousands of people have been reinfected with COVID again. Thousands suffer from long COVID. We have failed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our worst failure, of course, is the failure to completely eradicate COVID. We live in an era where humans have eradicated smallpox from the world, eliminated polio and guinea worm from most countries, and are aiming to eliminate malaria and other diseases. We have successfully eliminated the first SARS coronavirus, the cause of the 2002\u20132004 outbreak, and have made progress against MERS. We had the power to eradicate COVID, and we failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hope that one day we will eradicate COVID, and many of the other diseases that cause misery to humans and other animals on this planet, including diseases that we have not yet encountered. But for COVID, the possibility of eradication gets harder with every new variant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result is that many political and institutional leaders have told us we\u2019ll be \u201cliving with the virus,\u201d in ways that ensure that thousands will be dying with the virus for many years. The \u201creopening\u201d of institutions to unmasked indoor activities is a cruel joke to immunocompromised people who are unable to participate. More than a billion people around the world are still unvaccinated or undervaccinated, most through no choice of their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What baffled me for months was the inability of almost everyone I know to acknowledge this failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, people are plenty willing to acknowledge the failures of others. Here in New York, lots of people are willing to heap well-deserved blame on Donald Trump and his enablers. Some are willing to blame Andrew Cuomo, who deserves at least as much blame, and on other Democrats like Bill de Blasio, Joe Biden, Kathy Hochul and Eric Adams. But I have yet to hear someone acknowledge their own failures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember in 2020 how we were all in this together<\/a> \u2014 wearing masks, socially distancing, getting tested, even washing our hands? Of course, a lot of this was a fiction, but many of us felt like we were contributing to the effort to stop the spread of the disease. I know lots of people who for months, if not years, were diligent about eating outdoors, wearing masks, working from home, avoiding indoor entertainment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know some people who have continued to this day with careful measures to avoid spreading COVID. As of this writing, my family and I are still avoiding eating in indoor public spaces, foregoing in-person concerts, and wearing N95-type masks when necessary. But many others just stopped<\/a> at a certain point. And what struck me was how quietly they all did it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve seen some people on social media \u2014 and on mainstream media, and even in person \u2014 announce that they were going to their first party \u201csince COVID,\u201d or maybe attending their first concert or conference, or giving their first interview. Some have even gotten visibly emotional about it, and talked about feeling nervous. But nobody talked about why they decided to start attending parties or conferences, or performing in theaters. Nobody acknowledged that this meant they had stopped taking precautions to avoid spreading COVID.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some people have parroted the bullshit put out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention \u2014 that COVID is now \u201cendemic,\u201d and we have to start \u201cliving with the disease.\u201d But they pivoted awfully quick from \u201cwe have to stop COVID\u201d to \u201cwe\u2019ll never stop COVID,\u201d without going through the stage of \u201cwe have failed to stop COVID.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I eventually figured out \u2014 and only recently \u2014 is that people just don\u2019t like to admit defeat. Some people are okay with acknowledging setbacks \u2014 we\u2019re retreating to the hills, but we will be back! But colossal, catastrophic defeat, the kind that means that a million more people will die, that we may see many thousands die every year for the rest of our lives? That\u2019s something people don\u2019t want to think about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key to my understanding this was a Mastodon post I made about the recent fad of Large Language Models. I had noticed a similar pattern: that some people who were typically critical of new technologies had started incorporating LLMs into their work. I posted a critical response to an LLM post from someone I considered a friend, and was shocked that he basically told me to shut up with the criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An
A 2014 production of The Visit<\/em><\/strong> at the Theater of St. Gallen, Switzerland. Photo: Tine Edel<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I recognized this pattern from other trends I\u2019ve studied as well. It reminds me of a scene from Friedrich D\u00fcrrenmatt\u2019s play The Visit <\/em>(Das Besuch der alten Dame<\/em>), where the character Alfred finds the entire population of his village turning against him. He realizes this when he sees them wearing new shoes, which are yellow, and in most productions of the play they are bright yellow. I\u2019ve never seen the play performed, but my high school English teacher described Alfred seeing first one neighbor wearing yellow shoes, then another, and then looking across the stage and seeing everyone wearing bright yellow shoes. The image has stuck in my mind for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve also been listening to the History of Byzantium<\/em> podcast, and the recent episodes focus on the capture and sack of Constantinople by the Fourth Crusade. I thought about the people of the city, seeing several emperors killed in quick succession, the harbor filled with Venetian ships, and Frankish knights parading through the streets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was too late to flee. What could they do but swear to serve their new lords? And once you decide to serve the new lords, why take the risk of pissing them off by showing insufficient enthusiasm?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"On
Screenshot of the \u201cDeep Space Homer\u201d episode of the Simpsons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In my Mastodon post I compared the new large language model fans to Kent Brockman, the news anchor from the Simpsons<\/em> who, spooked by a magnified image of an ant crawling across the camera, immediately announces, \u201cI, for one, welcome our new insect overlords.\u201d What I realized recently is that the only thing Brockman does differently from real people is to react a little more quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s important for me to acknowledge here that I don\u2019t think that these people gave up fighting the spread of COVID, or the imposition of large language models, because they stopped caring. I think that tomorrow if they thought there was as much chance of eradicating COVID as they thought there was in 2020, they\u2019d mask up again and stop eating in indoor restaurants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, they don\u2019t think that wearing a mask again will do much. And they can see that most of our leaders and the institutions they control have come down against eradicating COVID. They\u2019ve gotten their orders from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or from the boss telling them to show up at work in person.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They\u2019ve seen the announcements for in-person conferences and job fairs, with food and drink provided indoors. They don\u2019t want to miss out on those opportunities while less scrupulous competitors take advantage of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why do I care? Why did I expect anything else? Why do I think it\u2019s important to acknowledge failure?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve worked in tech support on and off for most of the past 28 years, either as a direct support technician or as a developer responsible for fixing bugs as they are found. One thing I\u2019ve found to be essential to providing good support is acknowledging and documenting failure. If we don\u2019t understand why we failed, we\u2019re just going to keep making the same mistakes again.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Normal
An excerpt from Warren Harding\u2019s \u201cReadjustment\u201d campaign speech, June 29, 1920<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

I remember my eighth grade Social Studies teacher telling us how in 1920 the American people were so hungry for \u201cA return to normalcy\u201d that they voted for a cretin like Warren Harding. But he only told us that they craved an end to involvement in World War I; I don\u2019t remember hearing or reading anything about the flu epidemic in that class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We need to talk about what happened: the people who wanted to sacrifice the vulnerable to preserve their profits organized and won. We need to remember how they did it and figure out how to overcome that. And we need to preserve that knowledge so that the people who are looking out for humanity in the next pandemic can be prepared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We won\u2019t be able to do that if we continue to live in denial.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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